Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
Issued: · Valid: –
Summary
Severe thunderstorms are possible on Thursday across the Mid-Atlantic and portions of the Ohio Valley, extending from southern Ohio and eastern Kentucky into the Mid-Atlantic region. Severe weather potential may also return to the Plains this weekend.
Product Text
000 ACUS48 KWNS 150759 SWOD48 SPC AC 150757 Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0257 AM CDT Mon Jun 15 2026 Valid 181200Z - 231200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Day 4/Thursday -- Mid-Atlantic/Northeast... Strong mid/upper level westerly flow will overspread portions of the Ohio Valley into the Northeast as a shortwave trough pivots across Quebec/Ontario and the Northeast U.S. on Thursday. Quite a bit of uncertainty exists regarding severe potential. Early day convection and cloud cover may limited destabilization from the Upper Ohio Valley into parts of the southern Mid-Atlantic and northeast. Additionally, stronger mid/upper level flow will become increasingly displaced to the north from richer boundary-layer moisture and stronger instability. Nevertheless, sufficient overlap of strong flow atop a moist airmass should occur from southern Ohio/eastern KY into the Mid-Atlantic, supporting a risk for severe thunderstorms on Thursday. This area will likely shift some in the coming days as mesoscale details become better resolved. ...Days 5-8/Friday-Monday... A surface front will sag southward across the Gulf Coast states, with surface high pressure centered over the Mid-South vicinity on Friday. This should suppress the overall severe risk as richer boundary layer moisture remains confined to TX and the Gulf Coast. On Saturday, northward transport of Gulf moisture across the Plains is expected beneath a building upper ridge. By Sunday, an upper trough over the West may eject eastward into the Plains, resulting in some return of severe thunderstorm potential this weekend, though spread among forecast guidance is quite large and predictability is low late in the forecast period. ..Leitman.. 06/15/2026