Mesoscale Discussion 1755
Issued: · Valid: –
Summary
Severe storms capable of producing large hail and damaging wind gusts are expected to increase across northern Minnesota, northern Wisconsin, and western or central Upper Michigan overnight.
Product Text
000 ACUS11 KWNS 270455 SWOMCD SPC MCD 270454 WIZ000-MIZ000-MNZ000-270630- Mesoscale Discussion 1755 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1154 PM CDT Sun Jul 26 2026 Areas affected...Northern MN/WI into western/central Upper MI Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 270454Z - 270630Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...The severe-storm threat is expected to increase overnight, and watch issuance is possible. DISCUSSION...Elevated convection continues across parts of northern MN/WI late this evening, to the cool side of a nearly stationary baroclinic zone. The environment remains conditionally favorable across the region, with MUCAPE in excess of 2000 J/kg and strong deep-layer shear. In the short term, the strongest elevated storms will be capable of producing isolated large hail and damaging gusts. Most guidance continues to depict an increase in storm coverage and eventual clustering/upscale growth, though this evolution has been slow to materialize thus far. Increasing low-level warm advection should eventually result in additional storm development, resulting in an increasing severe threat overnight. Watch issuance is possible if trends begin to support intensification of ongoing cells and/or incipient upscale growth. ..Dean/Smith.. 07/27/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MQT...GRB...DLH...ARX...MPX...FGF... LAT...LON 48979545 47689001 46258806 44948742 44108771 44118926 45159168 45719292 46849452 47739536 48889620 48979545 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN