Day 1 Convective Outlook
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Summary
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms capable of producing damaging wind gusts and hail are expected this afternoon and tonight across eastern Kansas into the mid Mississippi Valley. Additionally, isolated severe wind gusts and hail are possible across parts of Arizona and the southern High Plains through this evening.
Product Text
000 ACUS01 KWNS 052002 SWODY1 SPC AC 052000 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Wed Aug 05 2026 Valid 052000Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...ARIZONA...AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible today and tonight across eastern Kansas into the mid Mississippi Valley. Isolated severe gusts and hail may also occur across parts of the southern High Plains and Arizona. ...20Z Update... ...Eastern KS into the Mid MS Valley... A low-amplitude shortwave trough continues to push through eastern IA/northern MO, within the base of extensive upper troughing that extends from western Canada through the northern/central Plains and Upper Midwest/Upper Great Lakes into eastern Canada. Isolated strong to severe storms are still expected this afternoon and evening across the Mid MS Valley. Damaging gusts remain the primary risk but a few instances of hail as possible as well. Strengthening low to mid-level southerly flow is anticipated from the southern High Plains through the Mid MO Valley overnight. Associated warm-air advection will contribute to scattered to numerous thunderstorms from eastern KS across central MO into west-central IL. Elevated buoyancy and moderate to strong shear within the cloud-bearing layer will support the potential strong to severe storms capable of isolated large hail and damaging gusts. ...AZ... Recent surface observations reveal a reservoir of low to mid 60s dewpoints across southern AZ. Additional heating/mixing will likely drop these dewpoints into the 50s later this afternoon, while also eroding the remaining convective inhibition and supporting moderate instability (i.e. MLCAPE from 1000 to 1500 J/kg). Given underlying questions about convective evolution as the storms move west off the high terrain, uncertainty regarding overall storm coverage and intensity remains. This uncertainty precludes introducing higher wind probabilities. That being said, the risk for isolated severe gusts (60-80 mph) remains, particularly if a forward-propagating line materializes. ...Southern High Plains... Thunderstorm development is still anticipated across the higher terrain of the Raton Meso before then progressing east-southeastward into the adjacent High Plains. High cloud bases and steep low-level lapse rates could result in a few strong to severe gusts, particularly if updrafts intensify along a southward-progressing cold front. ..Mosier.. 08/05/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Wed Aug 05 2026/ ...Eastern Kansas into the Mid Mississippi Valley... Severe potential this afternoon through tonight will be complicated by ongoing convection/precipitation from eastern KS into the mid MS Valley. In general, filtered daytime heating will occur along/ahead of a surface front across these regions through the afternoon, with this area on the southern periphery of mid/upper-level troughing over central Canada and the northern Plains/Upper Midwest. An embedded mid-level disturbance is aiding the ongoing sub-severe convection. Current expectations are for at least isolated strong to severe thunderstorms to develop later this afternoon and evening in the gradually destabilizing airmass, with sufficient deep-layer shear forecast to support some updraft organization. Occasional hail and damaging winds may occur with the stronger cores, but evolution into one or more bowing clusters remains uncertain. A stronger signal exists for scattered to numerous thunderstorms to develop late this evening into early Thursday morning across eastern KS into MO in a strengthening low-level warm advection regime, with a continued severe hail/wind threat possible given ample MUCAPE and strong shear forecast in the cloud-bearing layer. ...Arizona... A seasonably moist low-level airmass (with surface observations generally in the low to mid 60s) will undergo further heating through late afternoon. Orographic lift should favor convection developing over the higher terrain and gradually spreading into the lower deserts this evening, as modest mid-level easterly flow persists to the south of upper ridging centered over the Southwest. Very steep low to mid-level lapse rates will contribute to a risk for strong downdrafts capable of producing at least isolated severe gusts (60-80 mph). Considered adding a Slight Risk based on scattered thunderstorm coverage moving into the lower deserts. But, given ongoing cloud cover across parts of central/southeast AZ and a tendency for the mid-level easterly flow to gradually weaken through the evening, confidence in scattered severe gusts occurring remains too low for an upgrade at this time. ...Southern High Plains... Weak post-frontal low-level upslope flow into the Raton Mesa vicinity will favor widely scattered convective development across the southern High Plains by mid to late afternoon. Modest west-northwesterly mid-level flow will favor motions to the east-southeast into the adjacent High Plains along/near a surface cold front. With steep lapse rates and a relatively dry sub-cloud layer expected, evaporative cooling will probably result in a few storms being capable of isolated severe gusts. A gust of 75+ mph may occur given the very well mixed boundary layer. Isolated, marginally severe hail may also occur with the initial cells that develop. $$