Day 3 Convective Outlook
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Issued: · Valid: –
Summary
Marginal severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the central High Plains and the Upper Midwest on Tuesday, with potential for damaging winds, large hail, and an isolated tornado.
Product Text
000 ACUS03 KWNS 280731 SWODY3 SPC AC 280730 Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CDT Sun Jun 28 2026 Valid 301200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms will be possible from parts of the central High Plains into the Upper Midwest on Tuesday. ...Upper Midwest... Though the primary shortwave trough will be lifting into Canada, a remnant cold front will be situated across parts of northern Wisconsin into Minnesota. Strong to extreme buoyancy will be present south of this boundary. A belt of moderate mid-level flow will promote 40-45 kt of effective shear within the warm sector. Mid-level ascent will generally be weak. Where convection can initiate on the mesoscale, damaging winds and large hail may occur. There is some potential that an MCS could develop given the substantial buoyancy, but it is not clear where the preferred corridor for that will be at this time. ...Northeast Colorado into southwest Nebraska... A modest shortwave trough will move into the central Rockies. A surface low is expected to develop in eastern Colorado. This will draw low-level moisture into parts of the High Plains. Given around 40 kt of effective shear, supercells capable of large hail and severe gusts would be possible. Low-level shear will also be enhanced near the surface low and a tornado or two could also occur. ...Northeast... Given the upper-level pattern, strong convection could be occurring in Canada and move southeastward around the upper ridge. Depending on the timing/intensity of this potential activity, severe probabilities may be needed in future outlooks. Confidence remains low at this time, however. ..Wendt.. 06/28/2026 $$