Day 1 Convective Outlook
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Summary
Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of large hail and damaging wind gusts are expected across the northern High Plains and Minnesota through tonight. Additionally, isolated storms bringing damaging wind gusts are possible this afternoon and evening across the southern Mid-Atlantic, the Carolinas, the Sabine River Valley, the Great Basin, and southeast Arizona.
Product Text
000 ACUS01 KWNS 071619 SWODY1 SPC AC 071618 Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1118 AM CDT Tue Jul 07 2026 Valid 071630Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS INTO MINNESOTA.... CORRECTED FOR THUNDER LINES ...SUMMARY... Widely scattered to scattered severe storms capable of large hail and severe wind gusts are possible from the northern High Plains into parts of the Upper Midwest today into tonight. Isolated severe storms capable of mainly damaging wind gusts are possible this afternoon and evening from the southern Mid-Atlantic into the Carolinas, the Sabine River Valley, parts of the Great Basin, and southeast Arizona. ...Dakotas/MN... A broad upper ridge is present today over much of the Rockies and Plains states, with moderately strong winds aloft topping the ridge over the Dakotas. A surface boundary will lift slightly northward and extend from the Black Hills region into western MN by evening, with a very unstable air mass expected to the south. Thunderstorms are expected to develop across southeast MT/eastern WY by late afternoon ahead of an approaching shortwave trough. These storms will intensify as they build into the greater moisture/instability in place across SD. Sufficient deep-layer shear and convergence near the boundary will promote supercell storms capable of large hail and damaging wind gusts. If sufficient organization can occur with these storms, there is some risk of a linear MCS tracking eastward through the evening across northern SD/southern ND into western MN with a risk of damaging winds. Ongoing storms over northeast SD may also persist, along with new development this afternoon along the boundary. These storms could also pose a risk of damaging winds and hail. ...VA/NC... Visible satellite imagery shows substantial cloud cover over northern/central VA, but mostly clear skies from southern VA into NC. Areas of strong heating will again be at risk of strong storms producing occasional damaging wind gusts this afternoon. ...TX/LA... Strong afternoon thunderstorms are possible again this afternoon in vicinity of a weak upper trough over the ArkLaTex region. Locally damaging wind gusts are the main risk. ..Hart/Squitieri.. 07/07/2026 $$