Day 1 Convective Outlook
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Summary
Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of large hail and damaging winds are expected across the northern High Plains and southern Minnesota today and tonight. Additionally, isolated severe storms producing damaging wind gusts are possible this afternoon and evening across parts of the Mid-Atlantic, the Carolinas, the Sabine River Valley, the Great Basin, and southeast Arizona.
Product Text
000 ACUS01 KWNS 072022 SWODY1 SPC AC 072018 Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0318 PM CDT Tue Jul 07 2026 Valid 072000Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS INTO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA... CORRECTED FOR SPELLING ERROR ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms capable of large hail and severe wind gusts are possible from the northern High Plains into parts of the Upper Midwest today into tonight. Isolated severe storms capable of mainly damaging wind gusts are possible this afternoon and evening from the southern Mid-Atlantic into the Carolinas, the Sabine River Valley, parts of the Great Basin, and southeast Arizona. ...20Z Update... No major changes were made to the outlook with this update. In the wake of earlier convective overturning in north-central/northeast SD, cloud breaks are supporting diurnal heating and gradual boundary-layer recovery. This, combined with a strengthening low-level jet into this evening, will promote some northward movement of an east/west-oriented surface boundary currently draped across southern/central SD. This boundary may be the focus for a few supercells later this evening, though it is unclear if this activity will develop on the immediate cool side of the boundary or in the moist/unstable warm sector. If these storms can develop into the warm sector, they could pose a locally greater risk of large hail, damaging winds, and a couple tornadoes -- given ample low-level hodograph curvature. However, given a large component of boundary-parallel deep-layer shear and strengthening warm advection, storms may tend to grow upscale and pose mainly a severe-wind risk. Additionally, there is a scenario where a severe MCS could emerge from this activity or storms forming to the west as they track along/south of the boundary in the strongly unstable warm sector. However, confidence in this scenario is too low for higher severe-probabilities at this time. ..Weinman.. 07/07/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1118 AM CDT Tue Jul 07 2026/ ...Dakotas/MN... A broad upper ridge is present today over much of the Rockies and Plains states, with moderately strong winds aloft topping the ridge over the Dakotas. A surface boundary will lift slightly northward and extend from the Black Hills region into western MN by evening, with a very unstable air mass expected to the south. Thunderstorms are expected to develop across southeast MT/eastern WY by late afternoon ahead of an approaching shortwave trough. These storms will intensify as they build into the greater moisture/instability in place across SD. Sufficient deep-layer shear and convergence near the boundary will promote supercell storms capable of large hail and damaging wind gusts. If sufficient organization can occur with these storms, there is some risk of a linear MCS tracking eastward through the evening across northern SD/southern ND into western MN with a risk of damaging winds. Ongoing storms over northeast SD may also persist, along with new development this afternoon along the boundary. These storms could also pose a risk of damaging winds and hail. ...VA/NC... Visible satellite imagery shows substantial cloud cover over northern/central VA, but mostly clear skies from southern VA into NC. Areas of strong heating will again be at risk of strong storms producing occasional damaging wind gusts this afternoon. ...TX/LA... Strong afternoon thunderstorms are possible again this afternoon in vicinity of a weak upper trough over the ArkLaTex region. Locally damaging wind gusts are the main risk. $$