Day 1 Convective Outlook
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Issued: · Valid: –
Summary
Severe thunderstorms capable of producing damaging wind gusts are expected across central Ohio, northwest Pennsylvania, and western New York through this evening. Scattered storms may also produce damaging winds across parts of Illinois, Indiana, and Missouri throughout the afternoon.
Product Text
000 ACUS01 KWNS 091629 SWODY1 SPC AC 091627 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1127 AM CDT Wed Sep 09 2026 Valid 091630Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM CENTRAL OHIO INTO NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA AND WESTERN NEW YORK.... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the central Plains to the Ohio Valley today. ...OH/PA/NY... A fast-moving shortwave trough now over WI/IL will track eastward today across the Great Lakes region. At the surface, the primary baroclinic currently extends from Lake Erie into OH/IN and will move eastward and be the focus for scattered afternoon thunderstorms. Strong heating and dewpoints in the 70s across much of OH and western PA will result in moderate CAPE values and steep low-level lapse rates. Sufficient deep-layer shear will promote organized storms with some bowing structures expected, capable of locally damaging wind gusts. This activity will spread into western NY/northwest PA by early evening before weakening. ...IN/IL/MO... The storms that form over OH will zipper southwestward along the boundary into a pocket of ample CAPE/moisture over parts of southern IN/IL into southern MO. Winds aloft in this area will be weaker, with less overall organization of storms. Nevertheless, a few storms may occasionally produce damaging wind gusts. ...TX/OK/KS... Widely scattered slow-moving afternoon thunderstorms will pose a risk of gusty/damaging winds in a hot/humid surface air mass. ..Hart/Guyer.. 09/09/2026 $$