Day 3 Convective Outlook

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Issued: 2026-10-03 05:34 UTC  ·  Valid: 2026-10-05 12:00 – 2026-10-06 12:00 UTC

Summary

Severe thunderstorms are unlikely across the United States on Monday, though isolated afternoon thunderstorms with minimal severe potential may occur in the Great Basin area.

Product Text

000 ACUS03 KWNS 030534 SWODY3 SPC AC 030533 Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1233 AM CDT Sat Oct 03 2026 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are unlikely across the USA on Monday. ...Synopsis... On Monday, an upper low will deepen further as it moves east across Quebec, with strong cooling aloft spreading into the northeastern states. Behind this system, a large area of high pressure will exist from the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes into much of the southeastern states. Given northeasterly surface winds over those areas, the more robust low-level moisture will remain confined to the Gulf Coast states. Here, winds aloft will remain weak, with primarily non-severe storms expected. Elsewhere, relatively cool midlevel temperatures will exist over the Great Basin as a weak midlevel wave moves across NV/UT. This may aid isolated afternoon thunderstorms, with minimal severe potential. ..Jewell.. 10/03/2026 $$