Day 1 Convective Outlook
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Summary
Isolated severe thunderstorms capable of producing hail and damaging winds are possible this afternoon and evening across parts of the southern and central Plains, the Ozarks, the Carolinas, the Mid-Atlantic, the Northeast, and parts of Colorado, Nebraska, and South Dakota. These storms are expected to be marginal in severity.
Product Text
000 ACUS01 KWNS 062001 SWODY1 SPC AC 061959 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0259 PM CDT Thu Aug 06 2026 Valid 062000Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE OZARKS...THE CAROLINAS INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST...AND FAR NORTHEAST COLORADO INTO PARTS OF NEBRASKA AND SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms capable of producing hail and damaging winds are possible across parts of the southern/central Plains into the Ozarks. Isolated damaging wind gusts may also occur from parts of the Carolinas into the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast. ...20Z Update... The forecast remains on track, and only minor adjustments were made with this update. In the near term, the primary concern will be the potential for a few organized storms in southern MO capable of producing severe hail and damaging wind gusts. See MCD 1843 more details. ..Weinman.. 08/06/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Thu Aug 06 2026/ ...Southern/Central Plains into the Ozarks... Ongoing convection in MO and along the KS/OK border late this morning has been aided by modest low-level warm/moist advection in the vicinity of a slow-moving surface boundary. Current expectations are for gradual destabilization to occur through the afternoon along/south of this boundary from the southern High Plains eastward to parts of the Ozarks. This region will remain on the southern periphery of large-scale troughing centered over Canada and the northern Plains, with nebulous/weak forcing for ascent evident along the surface front. This leads to low confidence in renewed thunderstorms later this afternoon into the evening. Based on this and trends in 12Z guidance, have removed the Slight Risk for severe/damaging winds. Still, an isolated hail/wind threat remains apparent along the length of this boundary, as moderate instability and sufficient deep-layer shear will be present to support updraft organization with any cells that can form/be sustained. A greater signal for scattered thunderstorm development exists this evening/overnight across parts of KS/MO as a low-level jet gradually strengthens in this time frame. Have expanded severe hail/wind probabilities northward a bit to account for this potential. ...Carolinas into the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast... Around 20-35 kt of southwesterly mid-level flow will exist over parts of the Mid-Atlantic into the Northeast today. At the surface, a weak trough will be located from the coastal VA north-northeastward into eastern NY. As surface temperatures continue to warm into the 80s with filtered daytime heating, thunderstorms will develop in the foothills of the Appalachians and subsequently move east-northeastward into the lower elevations and toward the surface trough. While mid-level lapse rates will remain poor, a rather moist low-level airmass will contribute to moderate instability this afternoon (MLCAPE generally 1000-2500 J/kg). Greater instability and steeper low-level lapse rates are forecast with southward extent into the western Carolinas where mid-level flow will be comparatively weaker. Some of the stronger water-loaded downdrafts will be capable of producing occasional damaging winds. ...Colorado/Nebraska/South Dakota... West-northwesterly mid-level flow will persist over much of the north-central CONUS through the period. At the surface, an axis of greater low-level moisture will exist from northeast CO/western NE into southern SD along/east of a weak surface trough, where dewpoints will generally be in the 60s. Near this axis, latest NAM/RAP forecasts show a narrow corridor of moderate instability this afternoon, with MLCAPE up to 2000-2500 J/kg. Although large-scale ascent will remain weak/nebulous across this region, any cell that can initiate near the instability axis would be capable of producing isolated severe gusts/large hail. Have therefore maintained the Marginal Risk across this region with some expansion. But, given low confidence in convective initiation, refrained from including greater severe wind/hail probabilities at this time. $$