Day 1 Convective Outlook
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Summary
Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of large hail and damaging wind gusts are expected across parts of the High Plains, the Texas coast, the Columbia Basin, and the northern Intermountain region this afternoon and evening. Isolated severe wind gusts and marginally severe hail are also possible in parts of the eastern Carolinas and the Pacific Northwest through the evening.
Product Text
000 ACUS01 KWNS 231940 SWODY1 SPC AC 231939 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0239 PM CDT Thu Jul 23 2026 Valid 232000Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Widely scattered severe storms capable of severe wind gusts and large hail are possible over portions of the central and southern High Plains this afternoon and evening. More isolated occurrences of damaging wind are possible from the middle Texas coast into Deep South Texas and parts of the Columbia Basin into the northern Intermountain region. ...20z Update Carolinas... A broad area of showers and thunderstorms is ongoing south of the quasi-stationary front across central NC. The environment south of the boundary into SC is warm and moderately unstable. However, vertical shear decreases substantially farther south from the boundary. This has resulted in little storm organization thus far. While sporadic damaging gusts remain possible, the tendency for convection to focus along the boundary where there is less buoyancy suggests severe potential is limited. 5% wind probabilities have been removed with this update. ...Central and southern High Plains... Scattered convection developing off the higher terrain and more isolated development along the stalled surface front should gradually coalesce across the High Plains late this afternoon into this evening. With 30-35 kt of deep-layer shear near the front, episodic supercell structures with a risk for large hail or damaging gusts will be possible. Eventually, upscale growth into one or more small clusters may occur during the evening as a southerly LLJ intensifies. Scattered severe gusts will be possible with this activity into the overnight hours. ...OR and ID... Initial high-based thunderstorms are developing east of the upper low over the Pacific Northwest. Enhanced southwesterly flow aloft, and seasonably warm/moist conditions, associated with a plume of monsoonal moisture, will support a risk for locally damaging wind gusts and marginally severe hail this afternoon and evening. See MCD#1716 for additional information. ..Lyons.. 07/23/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1118 AM CDT Thu Jul 23 2026/ ...Central/southern High Plains including western Kansas... Surface analysis late this morning places a front draped from far southwest KS extending into eastern CO. The front and a dryline farther south will focus thunderstorm development later this afternoon as strong heating results in appreciable boundary layer destabilization. Water-vapor imagery shows an impulse over central CO moving slowly east to the north of a mid-level anticyclone centered over northwest TX. This upper disturbance and associated forcing for ascent coupled with weakening convective inhibition will lead to scattered storms developing by late afternoon. Models feature a vertically veering wind profile with 30-35 kt of deep-layer shear over western KS near the front, which will be sufficient for at least episodic supercell structures with a risk for large hail. Some upscale growth into a small cluster may occur during the evening as a southerly LLJ intensifies. Scattered severe gusts will be possible with this activity. Farther west and south along the dryline, a deeply mixed boundary layer and weaker shear will favor an isolated risk for severe gusts with the stronger downdrafts. ...Middle Texas Coast to Deep South Texas... As Bertha continues westward over the northwest Gulf, a belt of enhanced mid-level flow will precede Bertha and spread atop a hot and moist boundary layer inland, with moderate instability developing by afternoon along the middle Texas coast. Ample deep-layer shear within the southwest quadrant of the parent system may support some cold pool organization. Steepened low-level lapse rates and high PW may yield a localized risk for severe gusts with scattered storms that develop near the coast and move inland over the coastal plain through the evening. ...Columbia Basin/northern Intermountain West... Weak height falls are expected while mid/upper-level winds strengthen regionally ahead of an upper low off the coast of the Pacific Northwest. Daytime heating along favored terrain, in conjunction with the glancing influence of the passing disturbance, will aid in isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms by mid-afternoon within a moderately unstable and steep lapse rate environment. The strengthening upper-level winds will enhance vertical shear, supporting the potential for some storm organization with an associated risk for locally damaging wind gusts and marginally severe hail. ...Eastern Carolinas... Midday visible-satellite imagery shows scattered showers/thunderstorms along a west-east oriented frontal zone over southern NC. Cloud breaks south of convective cloud debris will promote additional heating near the coast and moderate destabilization by mid afternoon. A few of the stronger storms that develop this afternoon into the early evening will probably pose a localized risk for damaging gusts. $$