Day 1 Convective Outlook
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Summary
Severe thunderstorms capable of producing damaging wind gusts and an isolated tornado threat are expected across parts of the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys this afternoon and evening. Isolated severe wind gusts are also possible throughout the afternoon and evening across the southern High Plains, southern Rockies, and parts of southeast Arizona and southwest New Mexico.
Product Text
000 ACUS01 KWNS 010603 SWODY1 SPC AC 010601 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0101 AM CDT Sat Aug 01 2026 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms with severe wind gusts and an isolated tornado threat will be possible today across parts of the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. Isolated severe gusts will also be possible in parts of the southern High Plains, southern Rockies and from southeast Arizona into southwest New Mexico. ...Ohio and Tennessee Valleys... A positively-tilted mid-level trough will move southeastward across the mid Mississippi Valley today, as an associated cold front advances eastward into the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. A north-to-south corridor of low-level moisture will be in place ahead of the front, where surface dewpoints will be in the 70s F. As surface temperatures warm this morning across the moist sector, moderate instability will develop. Low-level convergence ahead of the front and large-scale ascent associated with the trough will result in scattered to widespread convective development this afternoon. Thunderstorm intensification is expected to first take place in the Ohio Valley in the early afternoon, with additional more discrete cells developing southward into the Tennessee Valley. By mid to late afternoon, a broken line of thunderstorms is expected to organize and move eastward toward the southern Appalachians. Along the axis of instability, MLCAPE is forecast to peak in the 1500 to 2500 J/kg range during the afternoon from eastern Tennessee northward into far southeast Indiana. Near this axis, a low-level speed max is forecast to develop with 850 mb winds speeds increasing to around 30 knots. 0-3 km storm-relative helicity is forecast to increase to around 200 ms/s2. This should be enough for an isolated tornado threat, mainly with supercells that remain discrete. The tornado potential should be minimized in areas where too many storms form. During the late afternoon, a transition to linear mode is expected. Severe wind gusts will be possible with any line that can become organized, with this potential persisting into the early evening. ...Southern High Plains/Southern Rockies... North-northwesterly mid-level flow will be in place today across much of the south-central U.S. At the surface, an axis of low-level moisture will be in place from west Texas northward into eastern New Mexico, where surface dewpoints will be from the mid 50s to the mid 60s F. Along and near this axis, moderate instability is expected to develop by afternoon. Warming surface temperatures in the higher terrain will aid convective initiation, with storms forming and moving south-southeastward into the lower elevation of eastern New Mexico. The storms will eventually reach parts of west Texas during the evening. MLCAPE in the 1000 to 2000 J/kg range with 0-6 km shear around 30 knots, combined with 0-3 km lapse rates near 8 C/km, will likely be sufficient for isolated severe wind gusts. ...Southeast Arizona/Southwest New Mexico... An axis of low-level moisture and instability will be in place today across far southeastern Arizona. Along and near this axis, MLCAPE is forecast to peak in the 1000 to 1500 J/kg range. In addition, low to mid-level lapse rates will be very steep as temperatures heat up this afternoon. Storms that form within the stronger instability could have potential for isolated severe wind gusts. ..Broyles/Chalmers.. 08/01/2026 $$