Day 1 Convective Outlook

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Issued: 2026-10-03 16:02 UTC  ·  Valid: 2026-10-03 16:30 – 2026-10-04 12:00 UTC

Summary

Organized severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight, though some disorganized thunderstorms may occur across parts of the Dakotas, Minnesota, and the Gulf Coast regions this afternoon.

Product Text

000 ACUS01 KWNS 031602 SWODY1 SPC AC 031600 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1100 AM CDT Sat Oct 03 2026 Valid 031630Z - 041200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A shortwave trough embedded within the mid-level westerlies across the northern CONUS will continue to track quickly eastward across the northern Plains and Upper Midwest through the period. Showers and low-topped thunderstorms ongoing over parts of the Dakotas will spread into MN this afternoon. Low-level moisture will remain quite limited (surface dewpoints generally in the 40s), but a pocket of weak instability should support occasional lightning flashes with this activity. Convectively enhanced wind gusts may occur as low-level lapse rates gradually steepen this afternoon, but the overall risk for severe winds is expected to remain low owing to the minimal instability forecast. A nearly stationary surface front extending from south/coastal TX into the Southeast and Carolinas will once again serve as a focus for thunderstorms this afternoon as diurnal heating of a moist airmass occurs across these regions. Generally poor lapse rates aloft and weak deep-layer shear should limit the threat for organized severe thunderstorms through tonight. A greater concentration of convection may focus along/near the central Gulf Coast, as a weak mid/upper-level wave centered over the Bay of Campeche aids northward low-level moisture transport across this region through the period. Still, low-level winds should remain weak, and current expectations are for this convection to be disorganized. ..Gleason/Barnes.. 10/03/2026 $$