Day 1 Convective Outlook

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Issued:  ·  Valid: –

Summary

Isolated thunderstorms may occur across southeast New Mexico, southwest Texas, and western Oklahoma this afternoon, with a very low risk of marginal hail or strong wind gusts.

Product Text

000 ACUS01 KWNS 251611 SWODY1 SPC AC 251609 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1109 AM CDT Fri Sep 25 2026 Valid 251630Z - 261200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms are not expected today. ...Synopsis... An MCS is decaying across the TX Panhandle/South Plains late this morning. Outflow associated with this area of convection is spreading south and east, while areas of rain and cloud cover slowly develop northeastward toward western OK. In the wake of this early day convection, some airmass recovery and modest destabilization is possible across southeast NM into far southwest TX where stronger heating is occurring amid more scattered cloudiness. Likewise, across western OK ahead of the TX Panhandle convection and outflow, more isolated cloud cover is allowing for stronger heating of a moist boundary layer. ...Southeast NM/Southwest TX... Midlevel lapse rates are expected to remain modest and MLCAPE will range from 500-1000 J/kg by mid/late afternoon. Isolated convection may develop near higher terrain initially across southeast NM/southwest TX. A storm or two could briefly become strong and produce marginal hail, but the severe risk is expected to be tempered by the marginal thermodynamic/kinematic parameter space in the wake of the early day MCS. ...Western OK... While currently mostly sunny across western OK, afternoon heating could become muted by cloud cover as showers associated with the ongoing TX Panhandle activity spread east/northeast the next few hours. This could limit stronger destabilization/steepening of low-level lapse rates within a modestly sheared environment. A strong gust or two could occur if sufficient heating/steepening of low-level lapse rates unfolds. However, given modest vertical shear, weak midlevel lapse rates, and marginal instability, the overall severe risk appears limited. ..Leitman/Chalmers.. 09/25/2026 $$