Day 3 Convective Outlook
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Summary
Clusters of strong thunderstorms capable of producing severe hail and wind may develop across parts of the central Great Plains and Upper Midwest on Wednesday and continue into Wednesday night.
Product Text
000 ACUS03 KWNS 060732 SWODY3 SPC AC 060731 Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0231 AM CDT Mon Jul 06 2026 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS INTO UPPER MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Clusters of strong thunderstorms with potential to produce severe hail and wind may evolve across parts of the Upper Midwest into central Great Plains Wednesday through Wednesday night. ...Discussion... It appears that notable remnant mid-level troughing will begin to dig southeast of the Hudson Bay vicinity Wednesday through Wednesday night, while an upstream short wave trough pivots northeast then north of the Canadian Rockies toward the Northwest Territories. Within the westerlies to the south of this regime, subtle mid-level ridging may overspread the northern Rockies, with similar amplitude downstream troughing digging across the northern Great Plains, Upper Midwest and Great Lakes region. Beneath this regime, a weak cold front, perhaps reinforced by convective outflow in some locations, is forecast to overspread much of the remainder of the Upper Midwest/adjacent Great Lakes and middle Missouri Valley vicinity by late Wednesday night. This may be preceded across parts of the central Great Plains by conglomerate convective outflow emanating from considerable thunderstorm development spreading off the Laramie Range/Front Range vicinity, within steering flow trending northwesterly through the period. ...Great Plains/Upper Midwest... Steeper mid-level lapse rates associated with a remnant plume of elevated mixed-layer air may become increasingly confined to the higher plains during this period. However, seasonably high moisture content along/ahead of the southward advancing cold front may still become supportive of mixed-layer CAPE of 1500-2000+ J/kg with daytime heating. It remains uncertain whether an evolving cluster of storms, and/or a possible significant MCV emerging from it, will support continuing or renewed organized thunderstorm development posing a risk for severe wind gusts into and through the Upper Midwest during the day Wednesday. However, it is possible that destabilization in its wake could become sufficient to support strong thunderstorm development posing a risk for severe hail and wind, ahead of the southward advancing cold front later Wednesday into Wednesday night. Otherwise, guidance suggests considerable thunderstorm activity, initiating off the higher terrain of southeastern Wyoming through central Colorado by late Wednesday, may gradually intensify and consolidate within a more unstable environment near a broad/weak surface cyclone developing across the high plains. Aided by a nocturnally strengthening low-level jet, there appears at least potential for this activity to organize with potential to swaths of strong to severe surface gusts Wednesday evening, after initially posing a risk for severe hail and localized downbursts. ..Kerr.. 07/06/2026 $$