Day 1 Convective Outlook
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Issued: · Valid: –
Summary
Severe thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening across the middle Mississippi Valley, the Ozarks, and parts of the southern High Plains. These storms may bring damaging winds and brief tornadoes, with the most significant risks occurring through the overnight hours in the Middle Mississippi Valley.
Product Text
000 ACUS01 KWNS 311959 SWODY1 SPC AC 311957 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0257 PM CDT Fri Jul 31 2026 Valid 312000Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are forecast this afternoon and evening across the middle Mississippi Valley and Ozarks. Isolated to widely scattered severe storms are also possible across the central/southern High Plains into the southern Plains this afternoon through early evening. ...20Z Update... The forecast remains on track, and only minor adjustments were made with this update. The SLGT Risk in the Middle MS Valley was expanded southward into northern Arkansas -- driven by 15-percent wind probabilities. Here, temperatures have warmed into the upper 80s to lower 90s amid middle/upper 70s dewpoints -- yielding moderate-strong surface-based buoyancy. High-resolution guidance is in good agreement, depicting a southeastward-moving line of storms moving into this environment tonight. Despite a gradual increase in nocturnal cooling and boundary-layer static stability, the rich moisture and strengthening 30-kt west-southwesterly LLJ should support a continued risk of scattered wind damage into the overnight hours. Farther north, the MRGL Risk was trimmed in portions of IL, where limited air mass recovery in the wake of ongoing convection will temper the severe risk this afternoon/evening. ..Weinman.. 07/31/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1128 AM CDT Fri Jul 31 2026/ ...Middle Mississippi Valley and Ozarks... Recent surface analysis places a low over the central MN/IA border vicinity. A cold front extends southwestward from this low into southwest KS before then arcing more westward across the OK Panhandle and northwestward through southeast CO. A pre-frontal trough also extends from this low to another weak low in the south-central KS/north-central OK border vicinity (about 25-30 miles north of Enid, OK), before continuing southwestward through the TX South Plains. Showers and thunderstorms are currently ongoing from southwest OK through southwest MO and southern IL within the warm conveyor preceding these surface boundaries. Extensive cloud cover associated with these showers and storms extends from OK into MO and IL as well, with additional cloud cover near the surface low over much of MN, IA, WI, and IL. Sheltered environment across the warm sector beneath this cloud cover is characterized by dewpoints in the low 70s. General expectation is for this airmass to destabilize as the ongoing showers and thunderstorm continue to shift eastward/northeastward and skies clear before the arrival of the pre-frontal trough and cold front. The primary low will continue to occlude, and the development of a secondary triple point farther south across northern MO appears likely. Afternoon thunderstorm development is anticipated along the cold front and pre-frontal trough as well as near the surface low and triple point. Effective deep-layer shear around 30 to 40 kt should be sufficient for organized storm structures. A more cellular mode is likely early in the convective cycle, before trends towards a more linear/bowing mode over time as cold pools amalgamate. Given the overall moist profiles, water-loaded downbursts appear to be the primary risk during the more initial cellular mode before cold-pool driven gusts become more likely during the linear phase. The threat for damaging winds should spread southeastward regionally through late afternoon and evening. A corridor of more southerly (perhaps even slightly southeasterly) wind is anticipated south of this triple point, combining with low to mid level southwesterlies to support moderate low-level shear and an associated threat for brief tornadoes. ...Front Range/Raton Mesa into the TX Panhandle/South Plains... Storms are expected to develop and increase in coverage across the high terrain through mid/late afternoon before then subsequently spreading southeastward into the very warm and deeply mixed boundary layer across the lower elevations. High-based, outflow-dominant storm structures could support the potential for strong to severe gusts. Additionally, interaction between these storms (and associated outflow) and the southward progressing front may occur from northeast NM into the TX Panhandle/South Plains. This interaction could result in a corridor of greater wind gust potential from east-central NM into the TX South Plains during the late afternoon. ...Western AR into southwest OK/northwest TX... Thunderstorms will likely redevelop on scattered basis on the front later this afternoon and evening. The very warm and moist afternoon boundary layer will support the potential for severe caliber wind gusts regionally. Deep-layer wind profiles will generally be weak, but stronger mid/high-level northwesterlies could support a degree of storm organization as storms cluster and spread south-southeastward. $$