Day 2 Convective Outlook

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Issued: 2026-09-09 05:19 UTC  ·  Valid: 2026-09-10 12:00 – 2026-09-11 12:00 UTC

Summary

Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible Thursday afternoon across parts of the southern High Plains and portions of the Ozarks into the Mid-South. These storms may bring hazards such as hail and gusty winds.

Product Text

000 ACUS02 KWNS 090519 SWODY2 SPC AC 090517 Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1217 AM CDT Wed Sep 09 2026 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...AND PARTS OF THE OZARKS TO THE MID-SOUTH... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible on Thursday afternoon across the southern High Plains and portions of the Ozarks into the Mid-South. ...Southern High Plains to the Mid-South... An upper shortwave trough will move from the central Plains into the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley on Thursday. At the surface, a front is forecast to extend across the Ohio Valley into the southern High Plains during the morning. The western extent of the boundary over the southern High plains will sag southward through the period into northern/central TX, while the eastern extent of the boundary stalls over the Mid-South into the Mid-Atlantic. A moist airmass will be in place near and south of the surface boundary. Pockets of weak to moderate instability are expected near the surface boundary, but will largely be modulated by areas of ongoing precipitation at the beginning of the period, as well as weak midlevel lapse rates. Low-level flow is expected to remain weak, while strong flow aloft will be offset from stronger instability ahead of the surface front. This will limit more focused/robust severe potential. However, a few strong storms could occur across the southern High Plains within the post-frontal upslope flow regime where vertically veering wind profiles could support around 25-30 kt effective shear magnitudes. Marginal hail and gusty winds could occur within this regime. Within the very moist and moderately unstable airmass further east across portions of the Ozarks and Mid-South, sufficient clustering could occur to promote sporadic strong wind gusts via storm/outflow interactions, or from wet microbursts within the high-PW and steeper low-level lapse rate environment. ..Leitman.. 09/09/2026 $$