Day 1 Convective Outlook
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Summary
Severe thunderstorms capable of producing wind gusts and hail are expected this afternoon and evening across parts of southeast Kansas, northeast Oklahoma, southwest Missouri, and northwest Arkansas. Isolated severe wind gusts are also possible today from the Mid-Atlantic region northward into New York and across parts of western Nebraska and southern South Dakota.
Product Text
000 ACUS01 KWNS 060548 SWODY1 SPC AC 060546 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1246 AM CDT Thu Aug 06 2026 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST KANSAS...NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA...SOUTHWEST MISSOURI AND FAR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms with severe wind gusts and hail will be possible this afternoon and evening over parts of Great Plains and Ozarks. Isolated severe gusts will also be possible today from the Mid-Atlantic northward into New York. ...Northern Oklahoma/Southern Kansas/Southwest Missouri/Far Northwest Arkansas... An upper-level trough will move eastward toward the mid Mississippi Valley today. At the surface, a quasi-stationary front will be located from far northern Oklahoma east-northeastward into south-central Missouri, along which dewpoints will be in the 60s and lower 70s F. As surface temperatures warm during the day, moderate instability will develop along and near the front, with the RAP forecasting MLCAPE to increase into the 2000 to 3000 J/kg range. During the afternoon, low-level convergence will become focused near the front with scattered thunderstorm development taking place from southern Kansas into southwest Missouri. These storms will move southeastward into northern Oklahoma and far northwestern Arkansas by the early to mid evening. In addition to the moderate instability, RAP forecast soundings early this evening near the front have 0-6 km shear in the 35 to 40 knot range with 0-3 km lapse rates near 8 C/km. This environment will support a severe threat. A mixed mode is expected with supercells and multicell line segments both possible. Supercells will be capable of severe wind gusts and hail, while the stronger line segments will be associated with primarily a wind-damage threat. The severe threat could persist into the mid to late evening. ...Mid-Atlantic/New York/Far Western New England... Mid-level flow will be southwesterly over the Northeast today. At the surface, a trough will be located from the Atlantic Coastal Plains of Virginia north-northeastward into the southeastern New York. As surface temperatures warm today, thunderstorms will develop in the foothills of the Appalachians, moving east-northeastward into the lower elevations and toward the surface trough. Surface dewpoints near the trough will be in the lower to mid 70s F, which will contribute to moderate destabilization by early afternoon. MLCAPE is forecast to peak in the 2000 to 3000 J/kg range, which combined with steep low-level lapse rates will support an isolated wind-damage threat. ...Western Nebraska/Southern South Dakota... West-northwesterly mid-level flow will be in place over much of the north-central U.S. today. At the surface, an axis of low-level moisture will set up from western Nebraska into far southern South Dakota, where dewpoints will be in the 60s F. Near this axis, model forecasts show a pocket of moderate instability this afternoon with MLCAPE peaking in the 2000 to 3000 J/kg range. Although large-scale ascent will be weak, any cell that can initiate near the instability axis could be capable of producing isolated severe gusts. ..Broyles/Supinie.. 08/06/2026 $$