Day 1 Convective Outlook
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Issued: · Valid: –
Summary
No organized severe thunderstorms are expected today, though a low-probability threat of severe gusts or hail may develop late this afternoon across western Oklahoma and southern New Mexico.
Product Text
000 ACUS01 KWNS 251222 SWODY1 SPC AC 251220 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0720 AM CDT Fri Sep 25 2026 Valid 251300Z - 261200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms are not expected today. ...Western OK... Water-vapor imagery and radar mosaic this morning show a convectively modified disturbance over eastern NM lifting to the northeast towards the central High Plains. Mid to high-level clouds will be prevalent today over western OK downstream of an upper trough and associated with high-level moisture emanating from tropical origins over the east Pacific. Model forecast soundings indicate mid-level lapse rates will be modest (upwards of 1500 J/kg MLCAPE). It remains uncertain whether a stronger storm or two will develop late this afternoon with an accompanying low-probability threat for a severe gust. ...Southern half of NM... In wake of an early day MCS across southeast and eastern NM, some heating will likely occur within a dry slot wrapping through the base of a Four Corners upper trough. Due in part to the convective overturning of the MCS, there is some uncertainty regarding the quality of boundary layer moisture and instability forecast later this afternoon. A couple of stronger cells could develop with some risk for hail, but there is low confidence in a severe-caliber threat accompanying these potential storms late this afternoon. ..Smith/Bentley.. 09/25/2026 $$